#11 seed GONZAGA BULLDOGS (19-14) vs. #6 seed ST. JOHN’S RED STORM (21-11)
2011-03-17

NCAA Tournament – Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET – Denver, CO
Line: St. John’s -1, Total: 135
Gonzaga versus St. John’s is a matchup of teams with two distinctly different NCAA histories, recently speaking.
The Bulldogs have been to each and every NCAA party since 1999, dancing its way from tournament Cinderella in the late 90’s to perennial attendees today. If the ’Zags have been the annual party people, St. John’s on the other hand has been a tournament home body. The Johnnies, longtime strangers to all this madness nonsense, will be making their first tournament appearance on Thursday night since 2002, when they lost in the first round to Wisconsin.
The closest thing that these two teams may have in common is a little bit of history. In 2000 Gonzaga and St. John’s met in the second round of the West Regional. Gonzaga (#10 seed) defeated the Big East champion Red Storm (#2 seed) that year, 82-76. 2000 was also the last year that the Red Storm won a tournament game. Now Steve Lavin has the program back to respectability, and will be trying to add onto an already impressive ‘10-11 resume that saw the school go from 17 wins to 21 (and counting?) and from 6-12 in league play last season, to 12-6 this year.
You don’t make the tournament 13 straight times without getting hot at the right time of year, so it shouldn’t’ be surprising to see Gonzaga entering the tournament winners of nine straight and 11 of its last 12. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider where Gonzaga was on December 11, when the ‘Zags were sitting at 4-5 following an 83-79 loss to Notre Dame in South Bend.
Shortly thereafter, quality out-of-conference wins over Baylor, Xavier and Oklahoma State got things back on track for Mark Few’s team, and from there it was a race to wrest control of the West Coast Conference back away from last year’s champ, Saint Mary’s. That battle was waged throughout the season, with the two teams splitting games, winning on each other’s home court. It came down to the conference title game, and the ‘Zags were up to the task, defeating the Gaels 75-63. Gonzaga is led by big 6-foot-5 senior guard Steven Gray (13.8 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.7 SPG), who leads the team in scoring, assists, steals, collisions and floor burns.
Gray gets a big assist from 7-footer junior Robert Sacre (12.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG) the team’s leading rebounder, and shot blocker. Sacre (pronounced Sock-cray) could pose a particular headache on the interior for the Red Storm’s big men, whose tallest players seeing regular playing time are only 6-foot-8. Sophomore Elias Harris (12.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) is the third player scoring in double figures for the Bulldogs. Gonzaga’s guard play down the stretch was also impressive. Marquise Carter (5.9 PPG) averaged 14.5 PPG, made 13-of-15 FT, and committed just three total turnovers in the semifinal and championship games of the conference tournament. David Stockton provided key minutes off the bench subbing for Carter and Gray.
The Red Storm were sitting at 13-9, and 5-5 in conference play following a seven-point February 5 loss in Los Angeles to UCLA. They closed the regular season with a flurry, winning seven of their final eight games, including home victories over ranked teams Connecticut and Pittsburgh, and a road win over ranked Villanova. The Johnnies defeated five ranked teams in Madison Square Garden during the regular season, with the big head-turner being their 93-78 blowout of Duke on Jan. 30.
First team All-Big East player Dwight Hardy (18.0 PPG) led the team in scoring, seemingly saving his best for the biggest games. He scored 34 against ‘Nova, 33 versus UConn and 26 against Duke. Fellow senior Justin Brownlee (12.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is second on the team in scoring and rebounding. The concern for St. John’s entering this game isn’t who will take the court, but who will not.
Leading rebounder, and number two assist man, senior D.J. Kennedy (10.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.0 APG), tore his right ACL in the Big East Tournament loss last Thursday to Syracuse, ending his season and career at the school in heartbreaking fashion. Kennedy also led the team in steals with 56. Kennedy’s versatility as a passer, scorer, and defender will be sorely missed, especially on the interior, as Lavin’s crew will have to contain an energetic 7-footer without its top player on the glass. With Gonzaga averaging 37.4 rebounds per game to the Red Storm’s 32.8, the Johnnies have no choice but to outwork the ‘Zags in the paint. If they can’t, the Bulldogs could bulldoze the Red Storm en route to the second round.
Gonzaga is 12-8 ATS after an SU win, while St. John’s is 4-6 ATS after an SU loss. The Red Storm are also 6-10 ATS in non-home games, while Gonzaga is 8-6 ATS outside of their home gym.
GONZAGA is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was GONZAGA 73.3, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 1*).
GONZAGA is 17-6 ATS (73.9%, +10.4 Units) in road games after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better since 1997. The average score was GONZAGA 80.6, OPPONENT 74.1 - (Rating = 1*).
This four-star trend advises a play on the Under.
GONZAGA is 11-1 UNDER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The average score was GONZAGA 69.5, OPPONENT 67.0 - (Rating = 4*).

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Elite 8 Preview: No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 5 Michigan State Spartans
2010-03-30

In a great Elite 8 matchup set to take place on Sunday March 28, 2010 at St. Louis, No. 6 seeded Tennessee will face No. 5 seeded Michigan State as the Volunteers will play in the a regional final game for the first time in school history. Both teams are looking to prove that they belong among the elite teams of college basketball this season, and Sunday's game should be very competitive. The Midwest bracket was supposed to be either Kansas or Ohio State playing for a spot in the Final Four, with some choosing Georgetown or Maryland to find a lot of success.

The Spartans (27 - 8) were the No. 5 seed in this year's Midwest Regional, knocking off 12th seeded New Mexico State and No. 4 seeded Maryland. Then they met with No. 9 seeded Northern Iowa, which shocked No. 1 seeded Kansas in the previous round.

Coach Tom Izzo’s been to 5 Final Fours during his time as the head coach in East Lansing, Michigan; this is his time of the year, and this shows how dominant a head coach he is. Add in superstar Durrell Summers, who had his best, maybe best of the tournament, offensive game of the NCAA tournament on Friday night, and voted best team player Draymond Green among others and their improbable, probable now, run will continue on to Indianapolis to the Final Four and hopefully to another Michigan State Spartan championship. Without Kalin Lucas, the Michigan State Spartans still held the Panthers without a shot made for the last 10 minutes, 21 seconds of the game.

The Tennessee Volunteers (28 - 8) have had a long year dealing with injuries, arrests and player suspensions all in this one season, but are still just one win away from their first ever Final Four appearance in Indianapolis.

Korie Lucious and crew will struggle to take care of the rock against the Tennessee Vols defense, allowing the Tennessee Volunteers to run when they want to, and they can’t do anything about it. In the last three tournament games the sophomore has 8 assists and 4 turnovers, but he’s shooting only 39.1 percent for those three games. Lucious will have to shoot well if the Michigan State Spartans expect to get to the Final Four.

Wayne Chism had a great second half on Friday night, scoring 18 of his 22 points in the last 20 minutes against the Ohio State Buckeyes. But that’s only child’s play compared to the number of people the Spartans will put on him. I expect Chism to have a tough game and he may get frustrated down in the paint and start moving to the outside perimeter, which will be bad for his team. Wayne Chism and Brian Williams will both combine to control the backboards and the inside paint as they did in their teams win over Ohio State Buckeyes.

www.sportsbook.com has the Vols as 1.5 point favorites and the over / under at 136.5. The game will be close, but expect Tom Izzo and his team to find a way to beat the Vols.

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2010-03-15

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CBB: West Virginia at Villanova (12:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-03-05

It’s OK to feel a little choked up, real men do. The end of the regular season for college basketball is already here. It seems like football just ended and now this. But it’s fine, it’s time for March Madness, with more crazy twists and turns than Charlie Sheen’s marriage. In some conferences, like the Big East, there is still a ton of tournament seeding yet to be determined by games of Saturday and Sunday. One of the best contests matches West Virginia and Villanova at noon ET on CBS. Be sure to follow the latest lines and key betting information for this contest and the rest of Saturday’s board on the LIVE ODDS & GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com.

The impact on the Big East standings will be minimal, but for West Virginia (23-6, 12-16 ATS), this trip to Philadelphia is very meaningful. The Mountaineers, who are 6-4 and 4-6 ATS as visitors, lack a defining road win all season, with a December victory at Seton Hall probably the best of the lot. West Virginia plays many of the aspects of basketball expertly, however they lack a true point guard and a shooter at the end of the game. WVU lost earlier at home to Villanova and is 1-5 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite.

Has the lack of Wildcats scoring and defense in the low blocks finally caught up to them? The immediate answer would be yes, as Nova has fallen four times since Feb. 6. Opposing teams are brazenly attacking Villanova (24-5, 18-10 ATS) at the rim and coach Jay Wright’s team is drawing fouls like clicks to Megan Fox’s website. Most of the points in the lane come on dribble penetration or put-backs, not conventional scoring. The Wildcats are 21-11 ATS playing a team with a winning record past the mid-point of schedule since last year.

One interesting trend to note regarding this head-to-head series is that the straight up winner is 15-0 ATS dating back to 1999. In other words, pick the game winner, pick the spread winner. According to the StatFox Power Line, which shows Villanova by 4, the winner will be the hosts.

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CBB: BYU at UNLV (4:00 PM ET, VERSUS)
2010-02-09

UNLV kept it close when it travel to BYU a month ago, falling by just 4 points, the closest home game for the Cougars this season. On Saturday, the rematch will be in Las Vegas, and a win by the hosts will pull them even with BYU atop the Mountain West standings. Most or all 2009-10 statistical analysis would seem to suggest that UNLV will have a tough time pulling this out, however, unlike most travelers, BYU has not enjoyed its trips to Sin City. Read on for a quick look at this intriguing MWC dual then head over to the LIVE ODDS page on Sportsbook.com to see the latest price.

Jimmer Fredette is back! After battling mononucleosis in late December, the junior guard has been lighting up Mountain West foes and is the leading reason why BYU (22-2, 12-9 ATS) has one the finest records in college basketball. The Cougars formula for success is simple; they lead the conference in field goal percentage offense and defense. This is a talented club who understands roles and plays them accordingly. BYU is 15-4 ATS in road games over the last two seasons and on an 8-0 ATS run in February.

UNLV coaches and players understand that any chance of winning the conference rests with winning this MWC contest. The Runnin’ Rebels (18-4, 14-6 ATS) have their deepest team since Lon Kruger arrived, however the loss of starting guard Derrick Jasper to injury will test that belief, especially for all he does. This signals that Tre’Von Willis and Chace Stanback will have to play up a level. UNLV is 7-1 ATS facing teams outscoring their opponents by four or points a game this season.

As noted earlier, BYU has struggled in Las Vegas, going 3-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in Sin City the last dozen years. This Cougars’ team may be the best of any during that span though, thus the reason the StaFox Power Ratings show they should be favored by at least 3-points here.

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CBB: Villanova at St. John’s (12:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-22

A quick check of the Big East standings in college basketball shows that only one team remains unbeaten in league play heading into Saturday’s games, that being Villanova, at 6-0. The Wildcats could be in for a test on Saturday afternoon though, as they face one of those “land mine” type of games at St. Johns. The Red Storm are 9-2 at home this season, and hungry for the upset? Can they get it? Be sure to check the BETTING TRENDS page on Sportsbook.com to see what other bettors are thinking.

Though seldom mentioned with the coaching elites, it’s time Jay Wright starts getting his props nationally as one of the finest coaches in college basketball. He recruits young men with a certain type of work ethic, they leave Villanova (17-1, 13-4 ATS) a far better player than when they arrived, and as any opposing coach will honestly admit, watching film on Nova is a treat with the intensity and execution they play. Senior Scottie Reynolds is the tougher than nails leader who gives the Wildcats a chance to win each time out. This season, Villanova is 8-2 ATS against teams with winning record.

This was supposed to be the year. Coach Norm Roberts had preached patience as he collected more talent for St. John’s (12-6, 8-6-1 ATS) and this season the Red Storm were to move up the Big East pecking order. With a number of good non-conference outings, expectations were percolating, however a 0-3 start turned the attention on Roberts and where the program is truly headed. St. John’s players openly have questioned each other’s commitment to winning, which means that unless they can make something positive happen immediately, it’s setting up to be another sorry season for the Johnnies. The St. John’s have responded lately though, by winning two of last three and upset of Villanova could be a signature win. The Red Storm is on a 13-3 ATS run when on playing on Saturday’s.

Villanova has won seven of last eight (6-2 ATS) encounters between these teams, and the StatFox Power Line shows Villanova by 11. The hosts will have to come up with a truly special effort to hand the Wildcats their first league loss.

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